Putin has nothing to offer Poroshenko except “militaristic rhetoric"

Three days ago (14/10/2016) Putin's Russian press in both Russia and the occupied territory of the Donbass reported that,

"The Ukrainian combat helicopter shot down by the DPR forces landed in the area of Krasnogorovka occupied by the AFU. It was stated by Eduard Basurin, the DPR Operative Command Deputy Commander. " (Dninews: Saturday, October 15, 2016)

Similarly, TASS reported that,

"The militia command of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) has received information that the helicopter downed by the militia on Thursday, was carrying some instructors from NATO’s member states, the DPR Operations Command Spokesman Eduard Basurin told journalists on Friday." (TASS : October 14,2016) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, as Putin's proxy soldiers in the Donbass are reporting that,

"The DPR Operative Command specified that the area of the combat helicopter’s fall was cordoned off at that moment. Moreover, mobile communication did not work there." (ibid Dninews) (my emphasis),

the Ukrainian Defense Ministry,

".....  has denied the shoot down of one of its helicopters in Donbass, says it does not use helicopters for military ops" (Liveuamap : 14 October, 2016) (my emphasis)

At the same time the OSCE, in its information received as of 19:30, 14 October 2016

from its Special Monitoring Mission in the Donbass, did not include the shooting down of a helicopter by Putin's rebel proxy forces.

Given that Putin's rebel proxies in the Donbass stated that this helicopter was "carrying some instructors from NATO’s member states", the absolute deart of an international outcry about this helicopter downing contrasts with the international outcry in the case of the shooting down of the airliner MH17 (right) by Putin's forces in the Donbass on 17 July 2014 that killed all 283 passengers and 15 crew on board, and questions the veracity of Putin's propaganda machine about this alleged "helicopter shooting down".

What we do know is that,

"The Mariupol sector has ... suffered 18 attacks for the past 24 hours. The cities of Maryinka, Shyrokyne and Krasnogorivka were hotspots for militant shelling. Mortars, armored fighting vehicles, grenade launchers and machine guns were used in that direction.

In the Donetsk sector, Ukrainian Armed Forces have been fired 6 times. Grenade launchers and small arms shelling into Ukrainian soldiers in Troitske and Avdiivka were noted." (UT : Oct. 16, 2016) (my emphasis)

What we also know is that Putin continues to pour his Russian soldiers and armaments into the Donbass.

And according to Pavel Felgenhauer (left), a Russian military analyst,

"Putin Likely to Expand Russian Invasion of Ukraine in January [2017].

... an attack on Odessa more likely [as opposed to an attack on Mariupol] especially since “many in Russia consider [Odessa] a Russian city” and because its “’liberation’” would trigger a patriotic explosion much like the annexation of Crimea." (Joel Harding (right): To Inform Is To Influence : October 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

This would tie-in with the militaristic hysteria that Putin is foisting upon the Russian people as Russia continues to aimlessly meander in the quagmire of an economic depression.

However, according to Sergey Shelin (left),

"The militaristic hysteria the Kremlin has unleashed in order to frighten the West and win support at home “does not have real causes and looks like an improvisation by the leader and his advisors” tragically is “getting out of control” and could by itself lead to disaster ... " (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : Sunday, October 16, 2016) (my emphasis)

Shelin further argues that,

"As far as Ukraine is concerned. No one ever expected the Minsk accords to be fulfilled; and they aren’t being and won’t however much Moscow blusters." (ibid Paul Goble)

Which raises the important question viz.

"What will the invitation of Angela Merkel to Putin, Hollande, and Poroshenko to dinner in Berlin on October 19 really achieve when Poroshenko has not agreed to participate in a 'Normandy Four' summit until a roadmap envisaging compliance with the Minsk security provisions is coordinated?" (UT :

Is Merkel, yet again, providing Putin with a diplomatic platform to, in the words of Sergey Shelin, "bluster" about the Minsk2 protocols? 

As reported by the Jerusalem Post,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel is in regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin about the conflict in eastern Ukraine and the war in Syria, a government spokesman said on Friday." (Jerusalem Post (Reuters): 14/10/2016) (my emphasis), yet again underlining the Putinversteher German mentality

Shelin is correct when he states that, "No one ever expected the Minsk accords to be fulfilled; and they aren’t being and won’t .. " (cf also: UT : Oct. 12, 2016 :  "Red lines" of Minsk agreements for Ukraine: analysts' warning)

Yet many political analysts are now arguing that Putin's militaristic hysteria and his preparing the Russian people for war is merely a show to boost his support in Russia.

And they may be right.

According to Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin (right),

"...  Putin has nothing to offer his people to gain their support and to consolidate public opinion except “militaristic rhetoric and short victorious wars.”  But the effect of those wars – and there have been three so far – quickly exhausts itself." (Paul Goble : 15 October, 2016) (my emphasis)

Valery Solovey (left) is even more forthright. According to him,

" ... “the powers that be in Russia are not very firm. They try to give the impression of a strong, self-confident and even brutal state. But this is an exaggeration, an attempt to frighten the external world and Russian society” (ibid Paul Goble : 15 Oct) (my emphasis)

Yet .....

"[t]here are some unsettling things Russia has done, however, to give the impression that war is looming. (UT : Oct. 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

Is this a prelude to attack Odessa, as  Pavel Felgenhauer predicts?

(to be continued)