"Oh! what a tangled web we weave
When first we practice to deceive"
Lavrov has said that ties with Washington needs a reset v2.00, whilst at the same time continuing to maintain the deception that Russia does not have any intimate involvement with her proxies in eastern Ukraine. Furthermore, whilst bombs from Russian proxies are raining around Donetsk airport, Lavrov has the effrontery to say that,
" ..... thanks to "initiatives of the Russian President", the
situation was improving on the ground in Ukraine, where a ceasefire has
been in place for several weeks. The Sept.5 truce is largely holding
though some fighting has continued in places including the rebel
stronghold of Donetsk."
 |
| Pro-Russian rebels fire towards Ukrainian positions near the airport, from make-shift shelters inside houses |
Meanwhile, Poland has yesterday (
"If Russia does not change its policy, sanctions
will be toughened and they will make themselves felt even more in
Russia," Schetyna said in an interview with Polish broadcast Polsat
News."
Even the IMF has concluded that the battered Russian economy faces more pain over Ukraine, as reported yesterday by Max Delaney
But Putin is putting on a brave face by saying at an annual conference in Moscow, and attended by Russian delegates and other business leaders from around the world, that the Russian economy will grow despite sanctions. (3 Oct 2014)
 |
| Putin addressing delegates |
What is the effect of the sanctions against Russia on Central Asia?
As Stephen Blank points out (May 27, 2014),
"U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has called Russia’s invasion, occupation and annexation of the Crimean peninsula. along with its incitement of a civil war in Eastern Ukraine. a game-changer. One region where this description could possess particular resonance is Central Asia. All Central Asian governments have considerable reasons for alarm in the wake of Russia’s actions and the supine Western response. In this context, Vladimir Putin’s speech to the Duma of March 18, 2014 represented a landmine under the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all five Central Asian states with the threat of Russian military action should they somehow threaten the dignity and honor of Russians who are citizens in their states." (my emphasis)
"Kazakhstan, which had previously boasted the most dynamic economic outlook in the region, seems especially vulnerable to continued Russian economic myopia. Not only does a weakening ruble continue to threaten Kazakhstan’s economy, but the Moscow-led counter-sanctions also present a significant risk to sustained growth. As one economic analyst told The Astana Times, “Russian counter-sanctions in food products can be expected to, on balance, have an overwhelmingly negative overall impact on Kazakhstan through potential food price inflation and domestic supply risks[.]” It’s small wonder Kazakhstan has been one of the most vocal nations calling for an end to all post-Crimea sanctions." (Casey Michel October 02, 2014)
As with Ukraine, "Vladimir Putin made ominous comments on Kazakhstan's statehood at the Seliger Youth Forum last month" (Casy Michel The Moscow Times September 16, 2014) It would therefore seems that Putin's dream about a Eurasian Economic Community, a counter economic block to the EU, is rapidly evaporating. Putin's fine words viz. "that the Russian economy will grow despite sanctions", simply does not "butter any parsnips". But for how long will these sanctions last?
It is interesting to note that, "EU diplomats said that countries with close ties to Russia such as Italy, Austria and Finland are reluctant to implement the new sanctions. German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for the sanctions to go ahead, adding that "they could always be suspended at a later date (my emphasis) if there was progress towards a peace plan for Ukraine." What is even more interesting is that Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini, who has been chosen to be the EU's new foreign policy chief, told reporters in Brussels that "Some countries are asking for time", declining to say who those countries were. "Unity in this is absolutely crucial and strategic," she said. (Reuters 10 September 2014)
What is rather interesting about both Merkel and the 'fragrant' Mogherini is that both were active participants in the communist parties in their respective countries.
Mogherini was a member of the Italian Communist Youth Federation from 1988, and in 1996 she joined the Youth Left after the dissolution of theItalian Communist Party and its transformation into a social-democratic party. Thus, her appointment [as the EU's new foreign policy chief] has proved extremely controversial because she and the
Italian government were seen in many quarters as too sympathetic to
Moscow, and French newspaper, 'Le Monde' has described the appointment
as "a sad day for Europe".
Just recently the 'fragrant' Mogherini, facing European Parliament lawmakers in a confirmation hearing (06 October 2014), and asked how she would deal with the Russian "bear" -- often used as diplomatic shorthand for a powerful and unpredictable Moscow, she responded,
"I do not have much experience of dealing with bears," Mogherini said, suggesting her colleagues from countries closer to Russia might be better placed to answer the question.
"However, I would say we need a mix of assertiveness and diplomacy... the balance would depend on the reaction of the bear."
Merkel was "a former member of the East German Communist Party who functioned as a
mid-level propaganda commissar for the Free German Youth, that is, the
young Communists. She and the then-KGB operative Putin, who is fluent in German, were
active in East Germany at the same time. Whether they met or worked
together, [we simply do not know], but they were both in the same line of work" (M.E. Synon 3 July 2014)
It should always be borne in mind that when Merkel advocates maintaining sanctions against Russia (October 3 2014), nonetheless Putin has more than enough supporters in Germany to counteract her stance. As Clemens Wergin reported in May of this year, "..an investigative report by the newspaper Welt am Sonntag revealed how a shady network of Russia supporters has shaped public discourse in Germany." These 'shady' supporters are not only German industrialists but also German politicians and political parties. Why? Because Putin "[is] leaving Germany’s factories in a worse state than anyone imagined." (Peter Spence 23 Sept 2014)
Bearing all this in mind, can we really say that Putin is "putting on a brave face", or does he believe that his "friends" in the EU will soon begin to clamour for the suspension of the sanctions against Russia. With the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini at the helm of the EU's foreign policy, and Merkel worrying about both the outcome of the upcoming German Federal elections and the growing parlous state of the German economy (Mike Bird Oct 7 2014),
Putin may, indeed, be in a much stronger position regarding the suspension of EU sanctions thanks to Mogherini and Merkel. Added to which, the ISIS situation in the Middle East, coupled with the global ebola scare, is pushing the Ukrainian invasion by Russia onto the diplomatic back-burner, so to speak. The impending outcome of the German federal elections has, indeed, become critical for Poroshenko. Will Angela Merkel still be in power?
As Stephen Blank points out (May 27, 2014),
"U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has called Russia’s invasion, occupation and annexation of the Crimean peninsula. along with its incitement of a civil war in Eastern Ukraine. a game-changer. One region where this description could possess particular resonance is Central Asia. All Central Asian governments have considerable reasons for alarm in the wake of Russia’s actions and the supine Western response. In this context, Vladimir Putin’s speech to the Duma of March 18, 2014 represented a landmine under the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all five Central Asian states with the threat of Russian military action should they somehow threaten the dignity and honor of Russians who are citizens in their states." (my emphasis)
"Kazakhstan, which had previously boasted the most dynamic economic outlook in the region, seems especially vulnerable to continued Russian economic myopia. Not only does a weakening ruble continue to threaten Kazakhstan’s economy, but the Moscow-led counter-sanctions also present a significant risk to sustained growth. As one economic analyst told The Astana Times, “Russian counter-sanctions in food products can be expected to, on balance, have an overwhelmingly negative overall impact on Kazakhstan through potential food price inflation and domestic supply risks[.]” It’s small wonder Kazakhstan has been one of the most vocal nations calling for an end to all post-Crimea sanctions." (Casey Michel October 02, 2014)
 |
| Kazakhstan |
"Furthermore, "Not only has Moscow’s decision-making [regarding Ukraine] continued to erode its own
economic salience, but, for those most dependent on a healthy Russian
economy – in Astana, in Bishkek – the fiscal realities of a Russian
partnership seem ready to continue their downward trend for the
foreseeable future." (my emphasis) (Casey Michel)
As with Ukraine, "Vladimir Putin made ominous comments on Kazakhstan's statehood at the Seliger Youth Forum last month" (Casy Michel The Moscow Times September 16, 2014) It would therefore seems that Putin's dream about a Eurasian Economic Community, a counter economic block to the EU, is rapidly evaporating. Putin's fine words viz. "that the Russian economy will grow despite sanctions", simply does not "butter any parsnips". But for how long will these sanctions last?
It is interesting to note that, "EU diplomats said that countries with close ties to Russia such as Italy, Austria and Finland are reluctant to implement the new sanctions. German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for the sanctions to go ahead, adding that "they could always be suspended at a later date (my emphasis) if there was progress towards a peace plan for Ukraine." What is even more interesting is that Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini, who has been chosen to be the EU's new foreign policy chief, told reporters in Brussels that "Some countries are asking for time", declining to say who those countries were. "Unity in this is absolutely crucial and strategic," she said. (Reuters 10 September 2014)
What is rather interesting about both Merkel and the 'fragrant' Mogherini is that both were active participants in the communist parties in their respective countries.
 |
| Federica Mogherini |
Just recently the 'fragrant' Mogherini, facing European Parliament lawmakers in a confirmation hearing (06 October 2014), and asked how she would deal with the Russian "bear" -- often used as diplomatic shorthand for a powerful and unpredictable Moscow, she responded,
"I do not have much experience of dealing with bears," Mogherini said, suggesting her colleagues from countries closer to Russia might be better placed to answer the question.
"However, I would say we need a mix of assertiveness and diplomacy... the balance would depend on the reaction of the bear."
 |
| Angela Merkel and Putin |
It should always be borne in mind that when Merkel advocates maintaining sanctions against Russia (October 3 2014), nonetheless Putin has more than enough supporters in Germany to counteract her stance. As Clemens Wergin reported in May of this year, "..an investigative report by the newspaper Welt am Sonntag revealed how a shady network of Russia supporters has shaped public discourse in Germany." These 'shady' supporters are not only German industrialists but also German politicians and political parties. Why? Because Putin "[is] leaving Germany’s factories in a worse state than anyone imagined." (Peter Spence 23 Sept 2014)
Bearing all this in mind, can we really say that Putin is "putting on a brave face", or does he believe that his "friends" in the EU will soon begin to clamour for the suspension of the sanctions against Russia. With the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini at the helm of the EU's foreign policy, and Merkel worrying about both the outcome of the upcoming German Federal elections and the growing parlous state of the German economy (Mike Bird Oct 7 2014),
Putin may, indeed, be in a much stronger position regarding the suspension of EU sanctions thanks to Mogherini and Merkel. Added to which, the ISIS situation in the Middle East, coupled with the global ebola scare, is pushing the Ukrainian invasion by Russia onto the diplomatic back-burner, so to speak. The impending outcome of the German federal elections has, indeed, become critical for Poroshenko. Will Angela Merkel still be in power?
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